November 2023 Denver Multifamily Market Report
Market Overview
The Denver metro has a population nearing three million. Over the past decade, Denver’s population has grown by 11.7%, outpacing the national benchmark of 5.6%. The city’s economic strength is attributed to its highly educated workforce, a globally connected airport, and a low-tax environment. The region is home to 10 Fortune 500 Companies, including notable firms like Arrow Electronics, DISH Network, and DaVita. The most recent data shows an addition of 7,200 jobs in the past year, representing a 0.4% increase in employment. Despite this, the multifamily investment market in Denver faces a 44% decline in deal flow, influenced by higher borrowing costs and stricter lending standards. These dynamics have also led to a rise in cap rates from 4% to 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, prompting caution among potential investors in the Denver apartment market.
Highlights
- Downtown Denver, with approximately 7,400 units under construction on top of the 3,300 units delivered in the past 12 months, ranks third in the nation for units under construction.
- 70% of Denver’s pipeline is in the luxury category, and vacancies are most elevated in this segment, reaching 9.9%.
- New supply has outpaced demand in every quarter since mid-2021, with investors targeting high-rent areas such as Cherry Creek and the River North (RiNo) area.
- Around 14,000 units are scheduled to be delivered over the next four quarters, nearly double the 10- year annual absorption average of 7,700 units.
Rents | Vacancy | Construction
Downtown Denver, where 25% of the construction pipeline is concentrated, has one of the highest vacancy rates in Denver at 11.1%.
Average rent levels in the Denver region have reached $1,820 per month, with a 0.5% increase over the past year. Annual rent growth has been modest, at 1.4% for Class B apartments and 2.3% for Class A apartments. Expensive urban submarkets in Denver, including Downtown Denver, are no longer the leaders in rent growth. Suburban submarkets, offering lower average rents and minimal new supply, have performed better, with annual rents up by 3.0%. Absorption in both Q2 and Q3 2023 amounted to just over 2,000 units each. Vacancies have increased by 300 basis points to 8.3% as of Q42023. Denver has one of the most aggressive supply pipelines in the country, with 31,119 units under construction.
Sales
Denver, CO, By the Numbers Last 12 Months
Source: CoStar Group
- Units Under Construction: 31,119
- Units Delivered: 11,070
- Vacancy Rate: 8.3%
- Asking Rent Growth YOY: 0.5%
- Average Price Per Unit: $312K
- Sales Volume: $2.6B
- Sale Comparables: 154
Since the end of Q2 2023, there have been five property sales with a price exceeding $100 million. This is a significant increase in sales activity at the top end of the market compared to earlier in the year when only one such property traded above this threshold. This has boosted sales volume in the Denver multifamily market to $950 million in Q3 2023. Denver’s market sale price per unit is $312,000, surpassing the national benchmark of $230,000 per unit. Cap rates in Denver reached a low of about 4% late last year but have been on the rise, increasing to 4.8% as of Q4 2023.
