Tampa, Florida Industrial Market Report
Market Overview
The Tampa industrial market is the second largest in Florida, with 212 million square feet located along central Florida’s I-4 Corridor. With access to Port Tampa Bay, the largest container port in Florida, two international airports, three primary roadways, and the CSX terminal, the area has become a magnet for retailers, e-commerce, and distributors. For spaces over 100,000 square feet, leasing activity has slowed this year due to limited vacancies, a declining pipeline, and recessionary headwinds causing trepidation with signing leases. Market asking rents have reached historical levels due to persistent low vacancy coupled with premium new construction asking rates. The Tampa market is one of the few markets in the country where the price per square foot has been increasing, and pricing is forecast to continue its uphill climb for the foreseeable future.
Highlights:
- The market has maintained a sub 5.0% vacancy for nine consecutive quarters and sits around 4.0% as of Q3 2023.
- With the current availability rate at 5.4%, Tampa is one of the few markets in the U.S. where availabilities have declined since the summer of 2022.
- Around 6.5 million square feet is under construction, accounting for 3.0% of the existing inventory.
- Industrial investment volume has slowed in 2023 with roughly $350 million in total sales volume.
Rents | Vacancy | Construction
While the historical norm for annual rent escalation has been 3.0%, more leases are now including a 4.0% to 5.0% escalation. Asking rent gains peaked at 17% in mid-2022 and have been gradually declining over the past year to a rate of 12.2%. More local and regional tenants should see some much-needed relief as asking rents are forecast to slow over the coming quarters. Market rent growth has been most notable in recently delivered and new construction projects.
Industrial asking rents have increased 69.2% over the last five years to a record high of $12.10 per square foot.
As of Q3 2023, new industrial construction in Tampa has slowed, with an active pipeline of just 6.5 million square feet, which will increase inventory by 3.0%. Preleasing has been exceptional in the developmental pipeline and approximately 50% is already accounted for, another Florida-leading metric. With the amount of under development and proposed projects slated for Pasco County, Tampa is the new hot industrial submarket.
Sales
Tampa by the Numbers in the Last 12 Months
- Deliveries SF: 5M
- Net Absorption SF: 5.2M
- Rent Growth: 12.2%
- Sales Volume: $1.2B
- Vacancy Change (YOY): -0.2%
Industrial investment activity reached a three-year low in H1 2023, down from a peak in 2021 when total sales volume was nearly $1.8 billion.
Year-to-date industrial sales are currently sitting at just over $450 million, a noticeable decline from the peak in 2021. Institutional investors make up the bulk of the buyer group, especially for sales over $5 million. Newly constructed buildings, those built after January 2020, have consistently maintained the most favorable cap rates in the market. They have averaged approximately 5.0% over the past year, significantly surpassing the broader market’s cap rate of 7.1%.
