Commercial Land in Florida Market Report
Florida Economy & Population
According to recently released Census data, Florida is a top state to move to. Significant demographic shifts have been observed, with Tampa Bay playing a pivotal role in driving the nation’s highest percentage increase in population. Statewide, the median income has also experienced an uptick. According to the latest data, Florida’s population surged by more than 463,000 residents, reaching over 22 million people, marking a 2.1% rise from 2021 to 2022. Specifically, according to AXIOS, Tampa Bay witnessed a 2.2% increase during the same period, with the number of residents escalating from 3,219,514 to 3,290,730.
Florida’s population gains since 1946 have been impressive; its 2022 population was over nine times its 1946 population of 2.44 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In a recent meeting, Senate President Kathleen Passidomo revealed, “Our projections indicate that Florida’s population will increase by nearly 300,000 new residents annually over the next five years, equating to over 800 individuals per day. This is akin to incorporating a city slightly smaller than Orlando but larger than St. Petersburg every year.”
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey indicates that individuals aged 60 to 69 are largely fueling the surge in Florida’s population, followed closely by those aged 50 to 59. This is crucial to emphasize as a higher concentration of older residents necessitates greater healthcare access and infrastructure, underscoring the significant impact of population growth on Florida’s healthcare sector both now and in the future.
Construction Overview
Recently, Florida earned the title of “the premier state for construction.” This marks the fourth occasion that Florida has secured the leading position in Associated Builders and Contractors’ eighth annual Merit Shop Scorecard, which ranks all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a resurgence following a downturn caused by the pandemic. Despite fluctuations in this industry and its impact on commercial construction since 2020, there is now a positive trajectory as investment and construction activities gain momentum.
Looking forward to 2024, the development landscape in Central Florida presents an intriguing picture. The lingering effects of the inflationary period from 2020 to 2023 continue to pose financial hurdles for development projects, given high interest rates and anticipated rental rates. While supply chain issues have been largely resolved, inflation has stabilized to historical norms, yet subcontractors remain busy with ongoing projects, keeping construction pricing from decreasing. Developers are approaching 2024 cautiously, with some adopting a mindset of “Survive Until ‘25,” anticipating limited new construction starts.
Commercial Land Performance Last 12 Months | Source: CoStar Group
- Average Sale Price: $2.5M
- Sales Volume: $4B
- Sale vs Asking Price: -9.6%
- Average SF: 1.7M
- Total Transactions: 2,196
